Politics: Why did congress win in 2004 elections inspite of good governance by the Vajpayee Government?

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BJP didn’t lose in LS elections of 2004.
Now, don’t laugh because I have an explanation for this.
Actually, it can neither be called as a victory nor a defeat, because scenario at that time was same as that of 1999, UPA projected itself as a winner but it all happened because of alliance.

​Now see the percentage of vote gained by both the major parties.
  1. INC : 35.4% which was about 28.7% in previous election
  2. BJP: 33.3% which was about 37.06% in the previous election.
    This analysis shows that there was not much change in the liking of voters in both the elections it is more or less same.
    So how did BJP lose?
    It is called as distribution of votes, suppose in three cities C1, C2 and C3 there are elections going to be held, 3 parties are contesting A,B and C and the total percentage of votes to win an election is 40% and total population is 100. 
    If A gets- 36 , B- 30 and C- 34 votes in C1 
    In C2, A – 50 B- 35 and C- 15 votes
    In C3 A- 34 B – 36 and C- 30 votes 
    Now if you collect all the data you will get vote shares as :
    A : 40% B: 33.66677% and C:26.333%
    But If B and C together formed a coalition govt in C1 and C3 they will be declared as a majority govt.
    In C2: these 50% of votes if utilised in some other cities then it could collectively made that party to win, so this surplus votes percenatge was not at all beneficial situation for A.
    This is what exactly happened to BJP, It has won many seats in a particular city where the min threshold for vote require to win was surpassed and there were surplus votes but in some places they had even less than min threshold votes required to win an election.
​See there is not much difference in seats won between INC and BJP
Also, some negative campaigning against BJP and by the help of coalition of Leftist parties, congress formed a govt (because political parties who wanted to project themselves as seculars were not ready to join NDA alliance because of 2002).
This is what happens every time in politics.That is why politics is unpredictable.

P.S. Those who say that BJP lost due to Godhra don’t know that Modi became CM of Gujarat for 2nd time post godhra incident.

Thanks for the A2A Malhar J. Desai

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