THE RESULTS used to be by no device genuinely uncertain. On April 17th, right form hours after polling stations closed, pollsters released preliminary estimates showing that Indonesia’s president, Joko Widodo (better is understood as Jokowi) had won a 2d duration of time in place of job. He’s believed to occupy clinched about 55% of the vote, in opposition to forty five% for his opponent, Prabowo Subianto, a weak traditional. The contest used to be a replay of the old gallop, in 2014, which Jokowi won by a a little narrower margin. On April 18th the election price will stutter the preliminary end result, sooner than an official, licensed consequence to be released in Also can neutral. Its numbers also can differ fractionally from those of the pollsters, however the end result will be the identical.

Voters’ enduring make stronger for Jokowi also can moreover be partly defined by his intellectual policies. Outside a polling build in a village discontinuance to Jakarta, Suyagina, a housewife, says it is now a lot more straightforward for her to protect medicines thanks to Jokowi’s growth of health-insurance protection protection. Rachman, a heart-ragged voter wearing massive sun shades and a crisp white shirt, says the president’s a lot-wished investment in infrastructure has helped, too. And Jokowi has managed the economic system moderately effectively, conserving inflation low and converse noteworthy.

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But Jokowi’s likely victory can be thanks to cynical politicking. One weak point of his old campaign used to be a perceived lack of piety, which postpone some voters. Rumours circulating on social media claimed that he used to be a closet Christian—a possible handicap on this planet’s excellent Muslim-majority country. This time Jokowi shielded himself from such accusations by selecting a hardline Muslim cleric, Ma’ruf Amin, as his operating-mate. The vice-president-elect wants the country to adopt Islamic law and is raring to ban homosexual acts as effectively as some Muslim sects he considers heretical.

Jokowi has also cosied up to the military to counter Mr Prabowo’s nationalism. He has peppered his internal circle with retired generals and is pondering reserving some jobs in the civil carrier jobs for squaddies. In the form of Indonesia’s weak strongmen, he has dilapidated the police, prosecutors and bureaucrats to diagram lifestyles complex for his most vocal opponents.

But despite Jokowi’s snarl of such underhand ways, his victory tranquil appears to be like to be susceptible to be smaller than anticipated. He used to be hoping to reveal over 60% of the vote—the tally with which his predecessor used to be re-elected. Idea polls sooner than the election had given him a 20-percentage-point lead. Consultants build the disappointing showing partly the total manner down to Mr Prabowo’s noteworthy electoral machine, which helped to prove wavering supporters.

How Mr Prabowo will reply to 1 other defeat is unclear. In 2014 he cried disagreeable and challenged the end result in the constitutional court. He also encouraged his supporters to opt to the streets. That also can happen again. He has already claimed that his own birthday celebration’s tally reveals him to be the right kind form victor, a discovering which is fully at odds with that of most pollsters. At a press convention outdoor his home in Jakarta he told supporters to guard pollpacking containers, implying that the opposite aspect had cheated.

If Mr Prabowo’s supporters discontinuance jabber in opposition to the end result, that might presumably well maybe blight a effectively-gallop election. Coordinating balloting for 187m registered voters all over a rugged and sprawling archipelago of 17,000 islands isn’t any shrimp feat. But balloting largely went smoothly and people gave the impact cosy of the prospect to opt segment. The excellent source of disruption used to be confusion over the prolonged checklist of candidates. Voters had been not most full of life selecting a president, however a nationwide legislature and provincial, local and municipal assemblies too. That meant many voters had to struggle with five diversified pollpapers, about a of that had been the scale of a poster, with hundreds of picks.

The outcomes of races as adverse to the presidential one are tranquil trickling in. It appears to be like to be as despite the proven truth that the diagram-up of the nationwide parliament will remain a lot the identical. The victors of local battles also can make a choice some time to be declared.

Preliminary records also counsel that turnout has jumped by about five percentage functions which capability that of the 2014 election, to around 80%. That will diagram it the excellent election ever performed in a single day, anyplace. That’s potentially thanks to a concerted campaign to prove the vote by politicians on every aspect. Corporations joined in the trouble. A complete bunch of them, from cinemas to sushi restaurants, provided discounts to of us that had voted and might presumably well maybe point out it with an ink-stained finger.

A excessive turnout also can be one among the few issues about the election that pleases Jokowi. Both he and his birthday celebration, PDI-P, fared worse than anticipated. A heftier victory would occupy allowed him to sideline his conservative vice-president and the armed forces. And had PDI-P claimed extra seats it can presumably well maybe had been ready to decrease its reliance on its five coalition partners. Jokowi has made compromises to be sure re-election, however failed to consolidate his strength which capability that. Those compromises also can haunt him in his 2d duration of time.